Patrick Jane lie detection through pulse-sensing

Patrick is "The Mentalist", who helps police solve murders.

The show aired between 2008-2015, and I just started watching it after seeing a few reels/clips on social media.

A logician rivalling Sherlock, plus the mentalism of course.

One skill Patrick frequently showcases is detecting lies by sensing changes in someone's pulse.

Obviously, the show takes (giant) liberties with Patrick's "skills". So I'm not expecting everything Patrick does to be "evidence-based".

But pulse-sensing seems believable to some degree, and I wanted to see what actual science may exist.

If you think about it, what Patrick is doing is basically administering a polygraph test (using his own natural devices). Of course, a polygraph test senses much more than a person's pulse or heart rate.

In any case, as a starting point, it seems instructive to ask "do polygraph tests work" (as lie detectors)?

That's exactly what this 2025 study examines.

It's a fascinating research paper. What the researchers did:

Dow, Jeu, and Watkins present the first published empirical analysis of polygraph reliability. Starting with the universe of cases where an individual was convicted and was subsequently exonerated on the basis of DNA evidence ... the Authors take advantage of a natural experiment that results from the conviction of individuals subsequently determined with near certainty to be innocent. By ascertaining which cases of the wrongfully convicted individuals included a polygraph examination, and by studying how those examinations were interpreted, then, because the individuals are now known to be innocent, the Authors were able to determine the reliability of these polygraph results (which were obtained before the actual innocence of the subjects was known).

And their conclusion?

polygraphs yield unreliable conclusions in approximately 50 to 65 percent of all cases-worse than a coin flip. This failure rate represents a reason for caution in all contexts where polygraph examinations are routinely used, including criminal investigations.

The study gives a few case studies:

Corey Batchelor insisted he had nothing to do with either the robbery or murder of Lula Mae Woods, who was found dead in 1989 in Chicago, Illinois. During their interrogation, police told Batchelor he had failed a polygraph exam. Confronted with this bogus claim, Batchelor confessed to a murder he did not commit. He served twenty-seven years before being exonerated.

Justin Black suffered a similar fate. In 2007, he was charged in West Virginia with the 2002 murder of Deanna Crawford. After maintaining his innocence from the outset, including during a polygraph examination, Black confessed to the crime after being told he had failed the exam. He served eleven years for a crime he did not commit before being officially exonerated in 2021.

In Nebraska, James Dean began to wonder whether he really might have been an accessory to the murder of Helen Wilson. Informed he had failed a polygraph and would face the electric chair if he did not come clean, Dean confessed to participating in a crime he had nothing to do with. He served five years before being exonerated in 2009.

Even a confession doesn't prove guilt.

So, all in all, not so good for Patrick Jane -- even if he could read pulses as good as a polygraph!

Countries making progress on "sin taxes"?

A new WHO paper is out, reviewing tobacco tax reform in 15 countries:

Fifteen years of tobacco tax reform show countries can make harmful products less affordable

The basic idea is: higher prices are generally the most straightforward deterrent to smoking, and so governments should tax cigarettes appropriately if it wants to reduce smoking.

Some key points from the WHO review:

• Overall point: bold, regular tax increases on harmful products directly reduce consumption and save lives; while small, irregular taxes are easily eroded by inflation.

• ​The Philippines Success Story: Following major reforms in 2013, cigarette prices in the Philippines rose 638%, smoking prevalence dropped by roughly one-third, and the tax revenue was used to fund universal health coverage.

• Not as rosey elsewhere: In several countries though, prices and taxes remained stagnant.

• ​Sugary Drinks and Alcohol are Untapped: Taxes on these products remain globally low (the median sugary drink excise tax is just 2.4% of retail price), and in many countries, these products are actually becoming more affordable.

• ​Smart Tax Design is Crucial: The most effective taxes are substantial, simplify the tax structure, rely on specific excise taxes, and automatically adjust for both inflation and income growth.

The other reason tobacco taxes are attractive to policymakers, is that it generally raises tax revenue. Though taxes reduce consumption, cigarettes are price inelastic; and so overall tax collection increases as well.

Another general thought: context obviously matters, and so what policies and strategies to pursue of course depends on the country you are looking at. Nonetheless the review is a helpful synthesis of experiences in those 15 countries, and carries important broad lessons.

Eggs seem to slow cognitive decline

Saw this post and wanted to share the evidence here too.

Apparently the evidence is quite clear that eating eggs are associated with slower cognitive decline -- e.g. as suggested by this meta-analysis.

The paper says the max benefits (reduction in risk of cognitive decline by 9%) occurs for those who eat ~50g eggs a day (roughly one egg).

This is good to hear, since I eat a lot of eggs -- like once a day. Sometimes more, but the findings suggest just one is optimal.

Indoor plants improve air quality?

Well, sounds like the answer is, "not really in any meaningful way" according to this study at least:

Potted plants do not improve indoor air quality: a review and analysis of reported VOC removal efficiencies

From what I can gather, the study says: yes plants improve air quality, but you're better off just opening a window or using some other ventilation system.

If you can't open the windows for some reason or just like having plants, then indoor plants will help. But you'd need a lot of plants.

The study estimates you'd need:

10–1000 plants/m2 of a building’s floor space for the combined VOC-removing ability by potted plants to achieve the same removal rate that outdoor-to-indoor air exchange already provides in typical buildings

So even at the lowest end, you'd need 10 plants per m2! Not impossible, but it's a lot (even for wall mounted plants).

But hey, you could always have plants and open the window.

Cigarettes getting cheaper in Malaysia?

A comparison of food prices vs cigarette prices in Malaysia, since 2015. By think tank SERI.

Adjusting for inflation, food prices have still gotten more expensive, while cigarettes have actually gotten cheaper.

A public health concern.

Link to the full policy brief: 88e7d5f7-2a68-480e-964e-1a708287b613.filesusr.com

Social media negatively affects adolescent girls in particular

This 2022 study (a cross-sectional and longitudinal dataset analysis) found social media use is associated with negative impacts among adolescents – and especially younger adolescent females.

The association seems to be weaker for adults.

Side point: the authors had initially done another broader study, focusing on screen time (including social media but also other activities like video calls, homework).

This initially study didn't find any meaningful effects (between screen time and wellbeing). Following some debate, the authors conducted the 2022 study -- that was more specific to social media.

Creatine for cognitive function?

Eating creatine for physical health has become an accepted thing. But what about for the brain?

A while back, I watched this Huberman Labs episode, that covered this.Huberman podcast (with guest Rhonda Patrick) And I wanted to look at the research myself: here's one 2024 systematic review, covering 16 randomised control trials with a total of 492 participants.

You can see the full methodology and results in the credo summary of the paper -- but essentially the review concluded that creatine did have benefits for cognition.

As per the credo summary tldr:

This supplement may modestly improve memory and help people complete attention and fast-thinking tasks more quickly.

Hottest place in the galaxy... Oxfordshire?

Any Infinite Monkey Cage listeners here? Was listening to this episode on Fusion, and they talked about a nuclear fusion reactor in Oxfordshire.

As I understand it, to enable fusion, you need an extremely hot environment.

In the Oxfordshire reactor, scientists conducted an experiment with temperatures so high, that it momentarily became the hottest place in the solar system. Hotter than the sun.

How cool is that. And I found this paper, of a particularly well-known experiment using the reactor (scientists were able to generate a record amount of energy from fusion).

Sharing here -- excerpt from Huberman Labs podcast, on creatine and cognition.

How the "Big Bang" got its name

This story comes up repeatedly (including in the latest StarTalk episode).

Basically physicist Fred Hoyle, who did not believe in an expanding universe, inadvertently coined the "Big Bang". He used the term mockingly on a TV show, and it stuck.

Apparently though, it took a while for the term to really catch on. Found this article, that documents the story.

Really interesting story. Keen to read the actual paper (unfortunately paywalled).