Claim: 60% of American Kids Have Chronic Disease; It Was Better in the 1960s

Verdict: False, but not entirely misleading

“When my uncle was president, 6% of Americans had chronic disease. Today 60% do. [...] 60% of these kids, and that is a conservative estimate, now have auto-immune diseases, neurological diseases, obesity, peanut allergies, food allergies. All of this happened beginning around 1989.”

– RFK Jr.

2024 Presidential Policy Perspectives with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

While visiting a North Dakota ranch last week, RFK Jr. commented that kids today are less healthy than they were when his uncle John F. Kennedy was president. He says the same in the clip above, and it’s something he says a lot overall. But is it true?

Where RFK Jr. is Wrong: The Specifics

The specific claim that RFK Jr. repeats – 60% of today’s kids have chronic diseases, compared to 6% in the early 1960s – is not substantiated by evidence.

As a FactCheck.org post explains, the closest thing to a source he’s offered for the 60% figure is a 2011 study. Researchers used data from the 2007 National Survey of Children’s Health to estimate the prevalence of health problems among children. It reported that 43% of children have at least one of 20 chronic health conditions assessed, and that if you include kids who are overweight, obese or at risk for developmental delays, the figure rises to 54.1%.

However, as the author of the study, Christina Bethell, explained to FactCheck.org, there are no comparable data between 1960 and today. So the specific figures cited by RFK Jr. simply do not work.

Where RFK Jr. is Right: The General Picture

If RFK Jr. had said something more measured, such as “kids today are more likely to have activity-limiting chronic conditions than when my uncle was president,” he would have been broadly right.

A study looking at activity-limiting chronic conditions from 1960 to 1981 found that the prevalence increased from 1.8 to 3.8% over that time. Later research includes similar measures from 2008 to 2018, showing an increase from 7.7 to 9.1%. Broadly, then, there is general support for RFK’s claim.

Where He’s Wrong Again: Why This is Happening

Perhaps unsurprisingly, RFK Jr. attributes this increase to chemical and environmental exposures, but this is an oversimplification. For example, obesity has risen but cannot be attributed to a single factor. Autism has ostensibly risen but – as we’ve detailed on this board – most of this is due to wider awareness and more inclusive definitions.