Journal Article 1 Mention
Revisiting the Marshmallow Test: A Conceptual Replication Investigating Links Between Early Delay of Gratification and Later Outcomes
Tyler W. Watts2018
Greg J. DuncanHaonan Quan
Top 1% · 99th Percentile
530 citations · Education

TLDR

Children who waited longer for a second treat tended to achieve slightly more in adolescence. However, family circumstances and early abilities explained much of this link, while later behavior showed little connection.

Summary

1 Study Aim

The study conducted a conceptual replication (a new test of an earlier study's main idea) of the marshmallow test. The authors examined whether delay of gratification (waiting for a larger later reward instead of taking a smaller immediate reward) at age 4 predicted achievement and socioemotional behavior at age 15. They also tested whether these links remained after accounting for family background, early cognitive ability, and the home environment. The study asked whether early waiting ability independently predicted later adolescent outcomes.

2 Study Design

The authors used a longitudinal analysis (following the same children over time). They measured how long children waited in a delay-of-gratification task at age 4. They then related waiting time to achievement and behavioral outcomes at age 15. The analysis concentrated on children whose mothers had not completed college. Researchers first calculated bivariate associations (links between two measures alone), then added controls (statistical adjustments) for family background, early cognitive ability, and the home environment. They also examined waiting categories, including whether children waited at least 20 seconds. The study compared early waiting behavior with later school performance and behavior.

3 Findings

The study found that each additional minute waited at age 4 predicted about 0.1 standard deviation (a common measure of difference) higher achievement at age 15. This bivariate association was about half as large as in the original studies. Adding controls for family background, early cognitive ability, and the home environment reduced the association by two thirds. Most achievement differences came from whether children waited at least 20 seconds. Links with age-15 behavioral outcomes were smaller and rarely statistically significant (unlikely to reflect chance under the study's test). The findings suggest that early waiting time alone is a weak guide to later outcomes. Family circumstances and early abilities explained much of the connection with later school results, while later behavior showed little relationship.

Abstract

We replicated and extended Shoda, Mischel, and Peake's (1990) famous marshmallow study, which showed strong bivariate correlations between a child's ability to delay gratification just before entering school and both adolescent achievement and socioemotional behaviors. Concentrating on children whose mothers had not completed college, we found that an additional minute waited at age 4 predicted a gain of approximately one tenth of a standard deviation in achievement at age 15. But this bivariate correlation was only half the size of those reported in the original studies and was reduced by two thirds in the presence of controls for family background, early cognitive ability, and the home environment. Most of the variation in adolescent achievement came from being able to wait at least 20 s. Associations between delay time and measures of behavioral outcomes at age 15 were much smaller and rarely statistically significant.

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