Summary
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1 Sample Definition And Size
The study included 1,026,139 adult patients (aged ≥18 years) in the UK newly prescribed an opioid without cancer (development cohort), and externally validated the models in a cohort of 337,015 patients. The development cohort contributed 2,350,730 patient-years of follow-up, and the validation cohort contributed 781,362 patient-years. The outcome (opioid-related death) occurred in 1,226 individuals (0.12%) in the development cohort and 293 individuals (0.09%) in the validation cohort. Competing deaths accounted for 5.1% and 5.9% of deaths in the development and validation cohorts, respectively.
2 Study Type
Retrospective cohort study developing and evaluating three competing risk time-to-event prediction models: a Fine & Gray regression model with LASSO penalization, a competing random survival forest model, and a DeepHit deep neural network model.
3 Conflicts Of Interest
No conflicts of interest are declared in the available metadata (no COI statement found in the abstract or metadata).
4 Results Summary
During internal validation, the C-statistics (discrimination) were: regression model 84.3%, random forest 84.4%, neural network 82.1%. During external validation, C-statistics were: regression model 81.8%, random forest 81.5%, neural network 81.5%. Key predictors associated with higher risk included prior substance abuse, lung and liver comorbidities, initiation with morphine, fentanyl, or oxycodone, and co-prescription of gabapentinoids.