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Sara B. Seidelmann, Brian Claggett, Susan Cheng | The Lancet Public Health | (2018)
Abstract
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Sample Definition And Size
The study analyzed 15,428 adults aged 45–64 years from four US communities enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study between 1987 and 1989, excluding those reporting extreme caloric intake (<600 or >4200 kcal/day for men; <500 or >3600 kcal/day for women) ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)). The meta-analysis component combined ARIC data with seven multinational prospective cohort studies, totaling 432,179 participants and 40,181 deaths ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)).
Study Type
This work comprised a prospective cohort study (ARIC cohort) and a meta-analysis of multiple prospective cohort studies ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)).
Conflicts Of Interest
Lyn M. Steffen received grant funding from the California Walnut Commission and Dairy Management Inc, which was not used for this project; Susan Cheng reported grants from the NIH and personal fees from Novartis and Zogenix, outside the submitted work; all other authors declared no competing interests ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)).
Results Summary
In the ARIC cohort (median follow-up 25 years; 6,283 deaths), a U-shaped association was observed between percentage of energy from carbohydrates (mean 48.9%, SD 9.4) and all-cause mortality, with lowest risk at 50–55% carbohydrate intake ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)). In the meta-analysis (432,179 participants; 40,181 deaths), both low (<40%) and high (>70%) carbohydrate consumption were associated with increased mortality compared to moderate intake: pooled hazard ratio (HR) 1.20 (95% CI 1.09–1.32) for low intake; HR 1.23 (95% CI 1.11–1.36) for high intake ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)). Substituting carbohydrates with animal-derived fat or protein increased mortality (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.08–1.29), whereas substitution with plant-derived fat or protein decreased mortality (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.78–0.87) ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)).
Referenced In
Created: Mar 10, 2026