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Sara B. Seidelmann, Brian Claggett, Susan Cheng | The Lancet Public Health | (2018)

Key Takeaways

Sample Definition And Size

The study analyzed 15,428 adults aged 45–64 years from four US communities enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study between 1987 and 1989, excluding those reporting extreme caloric intake (<600 or >4200 kcal/day for men; <500 or >3600 kcal/day for women) ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)). The meta-analysis component combined ARIC data with seven multinational prospective cohort studies, totaling 432,179 participants and 40,181 deaths ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)).

Study Type

This work comprised a prospective cohort study (ARIC cohort) and a meta-analysis of multiple prospective cohort studies ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)).

Conflicts Of Interest

Lyn M. Steffen received grant funding from the California Walnut Commission and Dairy Management Inc, which was not used for this project; Susan Cheng reported grants from the NIH and personal fees from Novartis and Zogenix, outside the submitted work; all other authors declared no competing interests ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)).

Results Summary

In the ARIC cohort (median follow-up 25 years; 6,283 deaths), a U-shaped association was observed between percentage of energy from carbohydrates (mean 48.9%, SD 9.4) and all-cause mortality, with lowest risk at 50–55% carbohydrate intake ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)). In the meta-analysis (432,179 participants; 40,181 deaths), both low (<40%) and high (>70%) carbohydrate consumption were associated with increased mortality compared to moderate intake: pooled hazard ratio (HR) 1.20 (95% CI 1.09–1.32) for low intake; HR 1.23 (95% CI 1.11–1.36) for high intake ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)). Substituting carbohydrates with animal-derived fat or protein increased mortality (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.08–1.29), whereas substitution with plant-derived fat or protein decreased mortality (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.78–0.87) ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30122560/?utm_source=openai)).

Abstract

No abstract available

Referenced In

The Keto Diet: Is it More Risk Than it’s Worth?

Low-carb diets have been popular for decades. There’s an inherent appeal in a supposedly simple diet – just cut out carbs, and watch the weight drop off – but simplicity can be deceiving. Carbohydrates are an important part of a balanced diet, so isn’t there some risk to cutting them out entirely?

Here’s a low-down on the benefits and downsides of the keto diet, largely based on a literature review on the topic.

The Good News: You Do Lose Weight

The good news is pretty much what you’d expect. Keto diets really do help you lose weight.

For example, a systematic review and meta-analysis on ketogenic diets in women with polycystic ovary syndrome found that the diet helped reduce weight, BMI, waist circumference and fat mass. The authors called for more research with larger sample sizes, but overall, the picture for weight loss looks positive.

There is some difficulty in defining what a “true” keto diet means, but generally, studies include any diet that’s high in fat and limits carbohydrate consumption to less than 50 g per day.

The Bad News: Potential Risks

But the keto diet is not completely benign either.

Perhaps the most obvious source of risk is the high fat consumption recommended by most keto diets. It might not surprise you to learn that people on a keto diet have a greater increase in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels compared to people on a low-fat diet. This could increase cardiovascular risk, and studies have generally been too short-term to investigate this in detail.

The source of fat could also make a difference. One study mentioned in the literature review found a U-shaped association between carbohydrate intake (as a percentage of total calories) and all-cause mortality. This means that while high-carb diets were associated with increased risk, low carb diets (less than 40% carbs) were too. Further analysis showed that animal-derived fats and proteins were associated with worse risk, while plant-based fats or proteins decreased mortality risk.

The Bottom Line

Keto diets are effective for weight loss, but not totally risk-free. Based on what we know so far, it’s best to avoid large amounts of animal-derived fats if you’re on a keto diet.

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