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Nick Bostrom | The Philosophical Quarterly | (2003)
Key Takeaways
Plain English Takeaway
Either humans will die out before becoming super advanced, advanced beings won't bother running lots of history simulations, or we are probably living inside a computer simulation right now.
Study Aim
The paper aims to examine the likelihood that we are currently living in a computer simulation. It presents a logical argument showing that at least one of three statements must be true: humans will go extinct before reaching a highly advanced stage, advanced civilizations will not run many simulations of their ancestors, or we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.
Simply put: The paper tries to figure out if it's likely that our reality is actually a computer simulation.
Study Design
The author uses philosophical reasoning and probability logic to explore the simulation hypothesis (the idea that our reality could be a computer simulation). Instead of experiments or data, the paper builds a structured argument. It considers what would happen if future civilizations could create many realistic simulations of their ancestors, and what that would mean for the odds that we ourselves are simulated beings.
Simply put: The paper uses careful thinking and logic to weigh the chances that our world is a computer simulation.
Findings
The paper concludes that at least one of three things must be true: humans will likely go extinct before becoming highly advanced, advanced civilizations will not create many ancestor-simulations (simulations of their own evolutionary history), or we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. This means that unless we are already simulated, it is very unlikely that future humans will create many such simulations. The author discusses the philosophical consequences of this argument, challenging common beliefs about the future of humanity and technology.
Simply put: The paper finds that if future humans don't make lots of ancestor simulations, it's probably because we're already in one or won't survive to do so.
Abstract
I argue that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to become extinct before reaching a ‘posthuman’ stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of its evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we shall one day become posthumans who run ancestor‐simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation. I discuss some consequences of this result.
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